How Bad Can things Get
Forecasting Corona Virus Deaths forecasts week by week from 22nd March 2020
In the last week, since the 15th of March, some 7500 new deaths have occurred globally. It is still comparatively early days in much of Africa and we can expect greater acceleration on both of these continents.
CILT-Australia’s interest is on the impact on supply chains and passenger transport caused by COVID-19. Even over the last month international passenger airline services have plummeted along with very significant declines in domestic services.
The attached Table present forecasts for the continued high levels of deaths over the coming week. By March 29th the modelled forecast will conservatively reach 21,533 death globally. Since February 13th global corona virus deaths have grown by a factor of almost 10 rising from 1369 deaths to some 13069 as at 22nd of March 2020. The death level is still accelerating at a tragically alarming rate.
The coming CILT-Australia Newsletter will examine in detail the impacts on the T&L industries, as well as the comparison between the forthcoming economic downturn and how it compares to the GFC and the much greater 1990/91 recession when unemployment hit 11.2%.
The technical forecasting model, a six factor exponential polynomial, based initially at February 13th, when global deaths were first recorded at just over the 1000 level. The model has performed extremely well statistically against the actual global death levels with a 99% fit. This model will be updated weekly against actual global deaths.
We'd like to acknowledge and thank the 2019 Award Sponsors, Corporate Members and Sponsors without your help we could not have achieved what we have this year - we are truly grateful for your kind generosity:
Institute News
Corona Virus (COVID-19) Update
The safety and wellbeing of CILT Members, guests, visitors and employees is of our utmost importance and remains our top priority. CILT Australia is closely monitoring the situation with Coronavirus (Covid-19) and advice provided by the Australian Government Department of Health. We are responding appropriately as the situation evolves and will provide further updates on our website here.FOR DELEGATES If you have any questions or concerns about the event you are attending organised by CILT Australia , please contact the event organisers directly or call 1300 68 11 34
Read moreTips to prepare your workplace for remote work
The coronavirus looks like forcing a growing number of companies to adopt a remote workforce, but there needs to be processes and experience in place to ensure a successful transition in response to the health outbreak.
Read moreATO - Business Providing Road Freight Services -Taxable Payments Annual Report (TPAR)
Businesses providing courier or road freight services are reminded they will need to complete a Taxable payments annual report (TPAR) if they have an Australian business number (ABN), and make any payments to contractors for courier or road freight services they provide on a business’s behalf.
Read more3DL ♦ Social distancing measures.
The entire team of Onshore Licensed Customs Brokers and compilers will be working remotely for the foreseeable future. That is other than the Roberts family members, whom will continue to operate from HQ in the semi rural town of Samford Village, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Read moreBanks will freeze small business customers’ loan repayments for up to six months amid the coronaviru
Banks will freeze small business customers’ loan repayments for up to six months in response to the cash-flow crunch caused by the coronavirus crisis.
Read more
