COVID - 19
How Bad Can things Get

Forecasting Corona Virus Deaths forecasts week by week from 22nd March 2020

 

In the last week, since the 15th of March, some 7500 new deaths have occurred globally. It is still comparatively early days in much of Africa  and we can expect greater acceleration on both of these continents.

CILT-Australia’s interest is on the impact on supply chains and passenger transport caused by COVID-19. Even over the last month international passenger airline services have plummeted along with very significant declines in domestic services.



The attached Table present forecasts for the continued high levels of deaths over the coming week. By March 29th the modelled forecast will conservatively reach 21,533 death globally. Since February 13th global corona virus deaths have grown by a factor of almost 10 rising from 1369 deaths to some 13069 as at 22nd of March 2020. The death level is still accelerating at a tragically alarming rate.

The coming CILT-Australia Newsletter will examine in detail the impacts on the T&L industries, as well as the comparison between the forthcoming economic downturn and how it compares to the GFC and the much greater 1990/91 recession when unemployment hit 11.2%.

The technical forecasting model, a six factor exponential polynomial, based initially at February 13th, when global deaths were first recorded at just over the 1000 level. The model has performed extremely well statistically against the actual global death levels with a 99% fit. This model will be updated weekly against actual global deaths.



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